INDIA IN THE WORLD OF THE TWENTY TWENTIES, PLASTINDIA DELHI 2006

Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006

Plastics in the world in the Twenties

The general world plastics industry in the 2020s is going to be entirely different in the next twenty years from what it appears today.

Plastics are to continue their growth in the next twenty years and beyond, from almost 200 million tons in 2005, to 365 million tons in 2015, and to 540 million tons in 2020. And this is just a beginning.

The general quantitative forecasts, however, show varying rates of growth, with:

Population growth tapering and average income fast growing,
Faster growing areas, outside the traditional Triad, USA, Europe, Japan,
Faster growing applications, in structural and durables,
New plastics coming, high performance, alloys, composites, silica based,
And, maybe, entirely new paradigms for the next 25 years, with the decline of fossil fuels as energy

This summarized consumption table 1 shows the difference between the commodity plastics, altogether close to 190 million tons worldwide, the engineering plastics, close to 7 million tons in the world and the specialty plastics, around 300 000 tons, all in 2005, as forecast from the most recent figures and outlook.

Table 1. Plastics production /consumption in the world and in Europe, in thousands of tons

Sources: Pardos Marketing estimates, from many sources

Comparative growth forecast to 2015, average annual rate of growth, shows that, among commodity plastics, only PP, and to lesser extent, PET for bottles, enjoy overall rates of growth well above 5 %.

There is a faster growth of PELLD taken alone, due to the replacement of PELD. The fast growth of PP, “the cannibal”, is due to the great versatility of this polymer, the wide range of grades and of uses. The still relatively fast growth of PET for bottles is explained by the broad volume applications still to come in less developed countries, as well as hoped-for entry into beer packaging and small PET bottles.

Among engineering plastics, The Big Five, the fastest growing is PC, essentially because of new applications, in the audio visual telectronics and as sheet for building, car lights and glazing. PC is sometimes hailed as soon entering commodity status. The other Big Five and their alloys will generally continue at a 7 % annual rate of growth, which means just about doubling markets in ten years. There are, and there will be, very active competitions and substitutions between the Big Five and their broad alloy families, substitutions that may or may not last, with set backs, like PBT as a part substitution of other plastics, nylon mainly.

Except for PTFE that is an old product, and relatively difficult to convert, all the specialty plastics will continue with rates of growth over 7 %, up to 15 %.

Another category associated with specialty plastics is that of high composites, made of a matrix of epoxy, or high performance thermoplastics, and carbon fibers, or other high performance fibers, such as aramids. Global demand for carbon fibers is currently estimated at 25 000 tons at least, with an expected 15 % growth.

Table 2. Capacity of commodity plastics, in thousands of tons

Table 3. Plastics consumption by major areas, in thousands of tons

*Average annual rate of growth

As of 2005, India plastics consumption is still less than one third of that of China. In the above forecasts, the relative proportion of China/India remains about the same in overall tonnage, but the comparative values in money would need a full study, under way. There are not just tonnage numbers, but added value is the key for the future.

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