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ENGINEERING AND PERFORMANCE PLASTICS, 2005-2015, RAPRA, VIENNA 2005

Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006

 

Plastics consumption in 2005 and 2015

Table 1 shows the estimated consumption of the main plastics in 2005, projected to 2015, in the world at large, and in Europe, meaning geographical Europe, exclusive of Eurasia, and average annual rate of growth, AARG for each of the main plastics in the world and in Europe.

Of course, as it could be expected, the overall projected growth rate is to be considerably slower in Europe than in the world total. Although the fast growing countries, those of the large BRIC, Brazil/Russia/India/China class will achieve two digits growth rate in the next ten years, the world total is weighed down by the “old economies”, USA, Western Europe, Japan, where growth is to be much slower. Generally, the long time historical growth of all plastics, 15 % a year between 1955 and 1975, will never be reached again.

Yet, all plastics are to be the material of the new century, more than ever, with sustained growth, worldwide. Most forecasts have proven conservative in the medium run. For instance, a forecast made in 1997 for 2007 shows that most consumption target figures will be reached in 2005.

 

Table 1. World consumption of plastics, 2005, and Europe. In thousands of metric tons

Plastics World 2005 AARG World 2015 Europe 2005 AARG Europe 2015
    W %     EU %  
Commodity 189350 6,3 349350 42870 2,6 55425
PVC 29000 4 43000 7000 1 7700
PELD /LLD 39000 5 63000 7600 3 10200
PEHD 28600 5 47000 6400 2 7800
PP 42000 10 109000 9500 4 14000
PS 12000 3 16000 2750 1 3000
EPS 3700 6 7500 1270 3 1700
ABS 6900 5 11300 850 2 1030
Other styrenics & alloys 800 5 1300 150 3 200
PET bottles 8500 10 22000 2500 5 4000
PET films and other 2250 3 3000 500 2 610
PUR 10800 5 17600 2900 2 3500
PMMA 1200 5 1950 350 1 390
UP 2500 4 3700 700 2 850
Thermoset moldings 1000 4 1500 150 1 170
Epoxy 1100 3 1500 250 1 275
 
Engineering 6880 7,7 14390 1990 4,5 3100
PA 2500 7 4900 750 4 1100
PC, including in alloys 2600 9 6200 700 6 1250
POM 760 7 1500 220 4 320
PBT PET 670 7 1320 220 4 320
PPE PPO 350 3 470 100 1 110
 
Specialty 265 7,2 529 80 2,6 103
PTFE 80 3 107 35 1 39
Other FP, PVDF 40 7 80 11 2 13
PPS 65 8 140 15 3 20
PSU 22 7 43 6 3 8
PES, PPSU 11 10 28 3 5 5
LCP 27 12 84 5 7 10
PAEK PEEK 2 9 5 1 8 2
PEI 11 10 28 2 6 3
PI 6 7 12 2 5 3
Other specialty 1 7 2      

Sources: Updated estimates from Pardos Marketing, from study Plastics in the world 2005-2015

 

This summarized consumption table shows the difference between the commodity plastics, altogether close to 190 million tons worldwide, the engineering plastics, close to 7 million tons in the world and the specialty plastics, around 300 000 tons, all in 2005, as forecast from the most recent figures and outlook.

Comparative growth forecast to 2015, average annual rate of growth, shows that, among commodity plastics, only PP, and to lesser extent, PET for bottles, enjoy overall rates of growth well above 5 %.

There is a faster growth of PELLD taken alone, due to the replacement of PELD. The fast growth of PP, “the cannibal”, is due to the great versatility of this polymer, the wide range of grades and of uses. The still relatively fast growth of PET for bottles is explained by the broad volume applications still to come in less developed countries, as well as hoped-for entry into beer packaging and small PET bottles.

Among engineering plastics, The Big Five, the fastest growing is PC, essentially because of new applications, in the audio visual telectronics and as sheet for building, car lights and glazing. PC is sometimes hailed as soon entering commodity status. The other Big Five and their alloys will generally continue at a 7 % annual rate of growth, which means just about doubling markets in ten years. There are, and there will be, very active competitions and substitutions between the Big Five and their broad alloy families, substitutions that may or may not last, with set backs, like PBT as a part substitution of other plastics, nylon mainly.

Except for PTFE that is an old product, and relatively difficult to convert, all the specialty plastics will continue with rates of growth over 7 %, up to 15 %.

Another category associated with specialty plastics is that of high composites, made of a matrix of epoxy, or high performance thermoplastics, and carbon fibers, or other high performance fibers, such as aramids. Global demand for carbon fibers is currently estimated at 25 000 tons at least, with an expected 15 % growth.

World consumption split for plastics

The split arrived on Table 2 below is a pure geographical split. 

 

Table 2. Main plastics consumption % split by areas, 2005

Plastics Eurasia* Americas** Asia Pacific*** Rest of world World,000s t
PVC 25 30 43 2 29 000
PE LL LLD 33 30 32 5 39 000
PE HD 24 35 39 2 29 000
PP 25 27 45 3 42 000
PS 24 29 44 3 12 000
EPS 30 25 43 2 3 700
ABS, copolymer 14 14 58 4 7 700
PET 32 30 35 3 11 000
PUR 35 34 29 2 10 800
PMMA 31 31 36 2 1 200
UP 30 33 33 4 2 500
Thermosets 16 16 65 3 1 000
PA 44 30 25 1 2 500
PC, with alloys 26 25 48 1 2 600
POM 31 21 47 1 760
PBT PET 31 26 42 1 670
PPE PPO 28 44 27 1 350
PPS 22 26 ***51 1 65
Fluoropolymers 26 50 24 - 120
Polysulfones 26 50 24 - 33
LCP 25 40 35 - 27
PAEK 40 45 15 - 2

Sources: Pardos Marketing estimates from World Plastics studies.

 

* Eurasia means geographical Europe plus Russia and still undeveloped markets north of the Himalayas, Western Europe amounting to about 85-90 % of the totals.
** The Americas include NAFTA countries, USA, Canada and Mexico, and all of Latin America
*** of which 40 % in Japan.

Some of the highlights are the already very large share achieved by Asia in the consumption of ABS, molding thermosets such as phenolics, PC, POM, PBT and PPS. This is due to the shifting of the converting industries, particularly in the electrical industries, to China, and to the strong technical advance and development of Japan in the case of PPS.

Europe is still ahead for polyamides, probably for historical reasons and the strength of the German producers. 

The US is ahead with PPE/PPO and fluoropolymers, for historical reasons, as well as for polysulphones and LCP, because of the importance of the main producers.

 


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