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PLASTICS IN THE TWENTIES,
ANTEC, CHICAGO 2004
Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006
Abstract
The paper is divided into three parts:
- The world economic scene and forecasts
- Plastics end-uses, markets and applications
- World plastics consumption and forecasts
World changes experienced in the last twenty years
will be accelerating in the next 17 years, to 2020. This is long
term and yet not so long as most people can remember 1986, and most
of 2003 could be forecast in 1986.
The 6.1 billion of world population will be 7.3
billion in 2020, 1 % annual growth instead of 1.5 % in 1980-2000.
Gross National Income, GNI, 31 000 billion dollars
in 2000, 50 000 billion dollars in 2020, is thus projected 2.5 %/year
per annum. Per capita $ 5 100 in 2000, $ 6 800 in 2020, of course
provided no major war or catastrophe happens.
Plastics end-uses and applications to keep the
same relative proportions, packaging, building, electrical/electronics,
vehicles, with major innovations and new markets in each category,
with new and fast growing plastics, in biodegradables, metallocene
techniques, alloys, wood and fiber composites, nano technology, mineral
polymers, and many others.
World consumption of plastics from 7 million tons in 1960, to 154
million tons in 2000, 300 million tons in 2010, and 540 million tons
in 2020…
Overall annual growth rate slows down from 8 % to 6 % in the next
twenty years, because the fast growing emerging giants, China, India,
to a lesser extent Latin America and Central /Eastern Europe, come
into a world market already very large with the industrialized world,
now growing more slowly.
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