ENGINEERING AND PERFORMANCE PLASTICS, 2005-2015, RAPRA, VIENNA 2005

Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006

Plastics consumption in 2005 and 2015

Table 1 shows the estimated consumption of the main plastics in 2005, projected to 2015, in the world at large, and in Europe, meaning geographical Europe, exclusive of Eurasia, and average annual rate of growth, AARG for each of the main plastics in the world and in Europe.

Of course, as it could be expected, the overall projected growth rate is to be considerably slower in Europe than in the world total. Although the fast growing countries, those of the large BRIC, Brazil/Russia/India/China class will achieve two digits growth rate in the next ten years, the world total is weighed down by the “old economies”, USA, Western Europe, Japan, where growth is to be much slower. Generally, the long time historical growth of all plastics, 15 % a year between 1955 and 1975, will never be reached again.

Yet, all plastics are to be the material of the new century, more than ever, with sustained growth, worldwide. Most forecasts have proven conservative in the medium run. For instance, a forecast made in 1997 for 2007 shows that most consumption target figures will be reached in 2005.

Table 1. World consumption of plastics, 2005, and Europe. In thousands of metric tons

Sources: Updated estimates from Pardos Marketing, from study Plastics in the world 2005-2015

This summarized consumption table shows the difference between the commodity plastics, altogether close to 190 million tons worldwide, the engineering plastics, close to 7 million tons in the world and the specialty plastics, around 300 000 tons, all in 2005, as forecast from the most recent figures and outlook.

Comparative growth forecast to 2015, average annual rate of growth, shows that, among commodity plastics, only PP, and to lesser extent, PET for bottles, enjoy overall rates of growth well above 5 %.

There is a faster growth of PELLD taken alone, due to the replacement of PELD. The fast growth of PP, “the cannibal”, is due to the great versatility of this polymer, the wide range of grades and of uses. The still relatively fast growth of PET for bottles is explained by the broad volume applications still to come in less developed countries, as well as hoped-for entry into beer packaging and small PET bottles.

Among engineering plastics, The Big Five, the fastest growing is PC, essentially because of new applications, in the audio visual telectronics and as sheet for building, car lights and glazing. PC is sometimes hailed as soon entering commodity status. The other Big Five and their alloys will generally continue at a 7 % annual rate of growth, which means just about doubling markets in ten years. There are, and there will be, very active competitions and substitutions between the Big Five and their broad alloy families, substitutions that may or may not last, with set backs, like PBT as a part substitution of other plastics, nylon mainly.

Except for PTFE that is an old product, and relatively difficult to convert, all the specialty plastics will continue with rates of growth over 7 %, up to 15 %.

Another category associated with specialty plastics is that of high composites, made of a matrix of epoxy, or high performance thermoplastics, and carbon fibers, or other high performance fibers, such as aramids. Global demand for carbon fibers is currently estimated at 25 000 tons at least, with an expected 15 % growth.

World consumption split for plastics

The split arrived on Table 2 below is a pure geographical split. 

Table 2. Main plastics consumption % split by areas, 2005

Sources: Pardos Marketing estimates from World Plastics studies.

* Eurasia means geographical Europe plus Russia and still undeveloped markets north of the Himalayas, Western Europe amounting to about 85-90 % of the totals.
** The Americas include NAFTA countries, USA, Canada and Mexico, and all of Latin America
*** of which 40 % in Japan.

Some of the highlights are the already very large share achieved by Asia in the consumption of ABS, molding thermosets such as phenolics, PC, POM, PBT and PPS. This is due to the shifting of the converting industries, particularly in the electrical industries, to China, and to the strong technical advance and development of Japan in the case of PPS.

Europe is still ahead for polyamides, probably for historical reasons and the strength of the German producers. 

The US is ahead with PPE/PPO and fluoropolymers, for historical reasons, as well as for polysulphones and LCP, because of the importance of the main producers.

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